Official midterm review · Nov 2026
The HypeTest Midterm Scorecard
Comparing prediction market prices against our 4-lens Evidence Composite across 20 benchmark races.
Decisive calls
11/ 12
Composite above 55% or below 45%. Only Texas Governor missed.
Toss-ups leaned right
3/ 5
Composite 45–55%. Nevada sat at 50/50; Iowa leaned wrong.
Market favorite won
15/ 17
Decided races, shown for comparison.
Hit rate by category
100%75%50%25%0%
92%
60%
88%
DecisiveToss-upsFavorites
Small sample (17 decided races). Read these as calibration evidence, not a leaderboard.
All 20 benchmark races
Market price for the favorite next to HypeTest's price-blind Evidence Composite. Gap = market minus HypeTest.
| Race (market favorite) | Market | HypeTest | Gap | Result | HypeTest's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OH-07 House Poindexter (D) | 86.5¢ | 55% | +31.5 | Won | Toss-up · leaned right |
| Nevada Governor Ford (D) | 75.5¢ | 50% | +25.5 | Won | Toss-up · 50/50 |
| IA-3 House Trone Garriott (D) | 84.5¢ | 63% | +21.5 | Won | Called it |
| IA-1 House Bohannan (D) | 91.5¢ | 70% | +21.5 | Won | Called it |
| Alaska Senate Peltola (D) | 71.5¢ | 56% | +15.5 | Counting | Still counting |
| Georgia Senate Ossoff (D) | 96.5¢ | 83% | +13.5 | Won | Called it |
| Nebraska Senate Ricketts (R) | 68.5¢ | 55% | +13.5 | Won | Toss-up · leaned right |
| Georgia Governor Bottoms (D) | 65.5¢ | 54% | +11.5 | Won | Toss-up · leaned right |
| Texas Senate Talarico (D) | 70.5¢ | 59% | +11.5 | Won | Called it |
| Democratic sweep Both chambers | 69.5¢ | 60% | +9.5 | Yes | Called it |
| Senate control Democrats | 71.4¢ | 64% | +7.4 | Yes | Called it |
| Maine Senate Jackson (D) | 67.5¢ | 60% | +7.5 | Won | Called it |
| Ohio Senate Brown (D) | 68.5¢ | 63% | +5.5 | Won | Called it |
| House control Democrats | 93.7¢ | 89% | +4.7 | Yes | Called it |
| NY-17 House Conley (D) | 57.5¢ | 57% | +0.5 | Counting | Still counting |
| Iowa Senate Hinson (R) | 55.5¢ | 54% | +1.5 | Lost | Toss-up · leaned wrong |
| Michigan Senate El-Sayed (D) | 75.5¢ | 78% | −2.5 | Won | Called it |
| ME-02 House LePage (R) | 57.5¢ | 61% | −3.5 | Counting | Still counting |
| Kansas Senate Hamilton (D) | 52.5¢ | 62% | −9.5 | Won | Called it |
| Texas Governor Abbott (R) | 63.5¢ | 87% | −23.5 | Lost | Missed |
Positive gap: the market was more confident than the evidence. Decisive = composite above 55% or below 45%; toss-up = 45–55%.